Joe Alejandrino
It is not what is reported on Western media. The situation is more complex than people think and there is only one way it can end.
Let me start with the Wagner group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. This group is composed of 25,000 diehard volunteers who do not form part of the Russian military but was used as an adjunct to it by Putin in the same way that Hitler had his “storm troopers” in World War II. Recruited from Russian prisons, they had nothing to lose but redeem themselves by dying on the battlefield for Mother Russia.
Prigozhin reported directly to Putin. He felt that the Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu was not aggressive enough in pursuing the war in Ukraine and had made numerous mistakes by being overly cautious. It was no secret that Prigozhin had advocated the use of tactical nuclear weapons to wipe out the Ukrainian army. He was getting impatient with the slow conduct of the war and blamed Shoigu for trying to hamper the Wagner group’s aggressive stance by limiting the flow of ammo and supplies to the Wagner group.
Prigozhin’s hardline stance made him popular with the Russian people and many in the lower ranks of the Russian military who wanted a quick end to the war in Ukraine. He was seen as a hero. To some extent, Putin is partly to blame for this situation. Using nuclear weapons would lead to a nuclear war with US and NATO. Adopting a more aggressive stance could lead to bigger Russian military casualties and Ukrainian civilian casualties. Putin had always considered Ukrainians as part of Russia and hesitated to adopt a ‘scorch-earth’ policy against them. He could have wiped out Kiev, the capital, with massive missiles and drones raining down on the city had he wanted to but didn’t, hoping at some point the Ukrainians would come to their senses and negotiate for peace. This did not happen. Why? Because the West would not allow Zelensky to negotiate peace. Washington was using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder to wear down the Russian military. The longer the war lasted, the hardliners in Washington thought – or hoped – it would trigger regime change in Moscow.
The mutiny by Prigozhin was not aimed at Putin but at the top brass of the Russian defense establishment. Those who marched to Moscow consisted of 4,000 diehards than the whole 25,000-strong Wagner group. Still, the 4,000 sent a signal to Putin who knew Prigozhin was being met and welcomed by the Russian populace along his way to Moscow and by Russian lower rank soldiers who refused to fire on the Wagner group. Prigozhin was getting his message through and that alarmed Putin. The Belarus president was a friend of Prigozhin and had Russian nuclear weapons which he had asked for should NATO overstep his border. He knew that thousands of Polish soldiers were just waiting for the NATO order to cross that border. He advised Prigozhin to stop the latter’s march to Moscow because it would only lead to much bloodshed between Russians and encourage NATO to cross the border and turn the tide in favor of Ukraine. He told Prigozhin that was precisely what US-NATO wanted and he would be an accomplice to it. Prigozhin saw the point and ordered his 4,000 Wagnerians not to proceed to Moscow. Belarus’ president guaranteed Prigozhin’s safety by giving him sanctuary in Belarus.
The Wagner mutiny is not a ‘coup’ aimed at Putin but a warning to replace Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, with a more aggressive commander. It’s a tough decision for Putin to make. The same for Zelensky who is under tremendous pressure from the US-NATO to win the war. Putin knows the Russian people won’t accept a defeat by the West after all his speeches about saving Mother Russia. Thus he is left with no choice but to finish the war even if he has to resort to tactical nukes against Ukraine. Russia and the West have reached a point of no return in their game of brinkmanship. The game can only end in Armageddon. (Jose Alejandrino)