Joe Alejandrino
Personal relationships between Heads of State is a vital element in international relations. Once trust is established between them it is the first step towards confidence-building measures. When trust is broken, restoring it becomes difficult because the element of suspicion remains.
This is what happened when BBM decided to give access to Uncle Sam to four more of our military bases in addition to the five it already had to be used against China to protect Taiwan which Beijing considers as part of China and which has been recognized by many countries, including the Philippines in its “One China” policy. Beijing saw this as a turn-around by BBM of the neutral stance that BBM’s predecessor Rodrigo Duterte had adopted. It construed BBM’s turn-around as interference in China’s domestic affairs and saw BBM as another American lapdog who can no longer be trusted. Like Russia, China views its encirclement by US bases as a threat to its security.
What did BBM stand to gain by this turn-around? China is allied with Russia and BBM only made two enemies instead of one. For $100-million in US military assistance while Taiwan is given $12-billion? A paltry sum that represents less than one US dollar per Pinoy who is placed in harm’s way in event of China striking our cities and military bases in a US-China war over Taiwan which falls outside the ambit of the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty. Look what happened to Ukraine when Zelensky chose to side with US-NATO than remain neutral as Putin warned.
Economically, what did BBM stand to gain? China is our biggest trading partner. Imagine what would happen if China cut off all our imports and their exports to the Philippines. Our inflation rate would soar by buying at higher prices elsewhere than cheap Chinese goods which are available at lower transport cost due to our proximity to China.
And foreign investments to the Philippines in case our country becomes a proxy to a war? Where are the foreign investments to war-torn Ukraine which has become entirely dependent on US-NATO-EU assistance militarily and financially? No investor is crazy to put his money in a “high-risk” country. Worse still, there is the risk of foreign companies already in the country closing up and moving to another SE Asian country.
At a time when BRICS (which includes Russia and China), countries like Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries, Latin American countries, are joining a new monetary system that promises to upset the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, BBM’s foolish and short-sighted decision to abandon an independent foreign policy mandated by our own Constitution is likely to produce consequences for our finances which is already under heavy pressure internally, witness the ballooning pensions of our retired military personnel that Finance Sec. Ben Diokno said is unsustainable. There are other events, internationally and domestically, looming over the horizon, that will surely impact our country. All the government is doing at present is reacting than anticipating them. This is a hell of a way to run a government. (Joe Alejandrino)