Christopher Maboloc
According to Sun Tzu, “he who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy, who is not, will be victorious.” What this means is that if one takes out the element of surprise, the same will lose the battle. In this sense, it appears that the Philippines is laying its entire card, and for that matter, we are revealing all we have to the enemy. As a result, we are laughed at and have lost some degree of respect since the Chinese actually know where we stand at – nothing.
Understanding the West Philippine Sea as a conflict between the country and China is a bit simplistic. There is a need to connect it to the realities of power in the world. It is not just about our economic rights and the wrong historic claims of China over the area. Granting that we have exclusive economic rights to the territory under the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS), prudent judgment is necessary to get a bigger picture from the relevance or lack thereof of our position in the global political order.
We cannot allow ourselves to be a part of a proxy war where we stand to gain nothing. Our alliances with the West is not necessarily a position of strength. Such is nothing but an illusion because any conflict will destroy us, not our powerful allies. To implement the Mutual Defense Treaty during a time of war, the US Congress must first approve any type of military intervention. It is not automatic since any military intervention has a broader repercussion to US interests. The troubles Ukraine has right now when it comes to the military aid from the US needs no further elaboration if applied to the possibility of conflict in the West Philippine Sea.
The right position is to be wary and cautious and not to be overly confident that America will protect us. The only interest of the US is its interest. Our most important goal must be to maintain the peace in the region. That does not mean giving up our territory. We shall maintain our diplomatic protest but our aggressive approach today is not helpful. The gravitational forces between these two conflicting superpowers will only result to our annihilation. China is bullying us because we are the soft underbelly of the US hegemonic position in the world.
Of course, there is a point to the argument that most of Europe after the Second World War is peaceful because of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The same can be said about the Korean Peninsula after US troops were stationed there after the Korean War. The presence of US forces is a deterrent to possible conflicts. Yet, such has not prevented the wars in Kosovo, in Ukraine, and in the Middle East where America has positioned itself in terms of its sphere of influence.
The larger moral issue is to ask ourselves about the greatest need of the Filipino people as of the moment. We have to look beyond intentions and alliances. We have to consider the accountability of the country’s leadership. Do we trust them should something go wrong? Can we believe that they are only after the good of the Filipino people? The right thing to do, on the part of our leaders, is to exercise caution because we are in no position to join any potential conflict in the world.
We have to look at the West Philippine Sea beyond the economic or resources oriented perspective. The primary interest in this issue is maintaining our national security and the peace in the region. This does not mean we shall refuse the help of the US and our allies. The problem has something to do with strategy. Our posturing has not helped us in any way. It only exacerbated the situation with no positive gain to show. The aggressive approach of the current national leadership jeopardizes our moral position. The long view is to secure the country without surrendering or compromising our sovereignty and dignity as a nation. However, that should not mean we are ready for war because we are not. (Ryan Maboloc)